This article describes well the tensions faced by firms when they try to attempt to collude: everyone wants everyone else to reduce output but no one wants to reduce its output. Here is a money quote:
"Everyone in Vienna concurs that cutting OPEC production to accelerate that perceived trend is a great idea—but no one can agree on who should do the cutting. Well, that’s not precisely true. Everyone thinks that the Saudis should do all or most of the cutting, except for the Saudis, who are insisting that the pain be more evenly shared.
"Specifically, the Saudis want Russia, Iran, and Iraq to cut."
The price of oil falls when observers think that the OPEC will not reach an agreement to reduce output and rises when the prospects for an agreement increase.
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